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Sunday, Mar 21, 2010
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Yes, there will be Oscars |
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| Yes, there will be Oscars | |
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by Sara Michelle Fetters -
SGN Contributing Writer The biggest mystery surrounding this Tuesday's 80th annual Academy Award nominations isn't which of 2007's magnificent motion pictures will be up for Best Picture. Instead, the one thing on everyone's mind after all the noms are announced is whether or not the actual Oscar telecast crowning the winners will even be broadcast. This past weekend the Writers Guild of America (WGA), currently - in case you've been living in a bubble and haven't heard - on strike, stood their ground and managed to effectively cancel the Golden Globes. Sure there was some faint resemblance of a program on both CNN and NBC, but it was really nothing more than a press conference, and if you were one of the handful of people to take the time to watch it, then you had the blessed (mis)fortune to see one of the worst broadcasts in all of television history. Okay, so maybe it wasn't quite that bad, but saying it was awful wouldn't be an exaggeration. Now the WGA have their sights set on the Academy Awards, and if you thought shutting down the Hollywood Foreign Press (the organization behind the Globes and one not exactly held in high esteem) was a statement, just think what people will be thinking if they manage to produce an empty Kodak Theater on February 24? Personally, I think an agreement will be hammered out between the producers and the writers long before this comes to pass (I like to stay positive), so with that in mind I'm going to move on to the happy task of trying to use my (not-so-trusty) crystal ball and figure out what Tuesday's nominees for the major categories will look like. In such a wide-open year as this one expect numerous surprises, and if I happen to be wrong on the majority of these please try not to hold it against me. BEST PICTURE The Guarantee: No Country for Old Men - Joel and Ethan Coen's stunning crime noir masterpiece has won virtually all of the preseason awards (but, surprisingly, not the Golden Globe) and in a crowded field of potential nominees it is the only sure thing. The Frontrunners: Atonement, Into the Wild, Juno, Michael Clayton and There Will Be Blood - While the safe money is on any four of these fine films making the cut, expect three of this quintet to be left out in the cold. Atonement seems to be the one running out of steam (although that unexpected Globe win did help), while hard-charging Juno is almost seen as a lock in some circles. As for the other three, not-so-glittering box office doesn't help matters, but glowing reviews and countless top ten lists have managed to keep all of them running up at the front of the pack. The Wildcards: Before the Devil Knows You're Dead, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly and Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street - One is considered a return to form for an 83-year-old directing legend. Another is told through the eyelid of a man trapped inside a wheelchair. The last is a demonic tour-de-force musical from a gothic filmmaker full of visual wizardry and gut-wrenching emotion. All have their supporters, and all would be worthy for a nomination. On the Outside Looking In: American Gangster - In a weaker year this would have been the pick to win. Unfortunately for director Ridley Scott, the last thing you could call 2007 is weak, leaving both him and his film on the outside of Oscar looking in. The Long Shots: The Bourne Ultimatum, Ratatouille and Zodiac - All three are worthy (the middle picture a lock for the animation Oscar), but only David Fincher's Zodiac has any real shot for an upset nomination. Problem is, the film was released all the way back in February and not many people remember just how brilliant it is. Predictions: Atonement, Into the Wild, Juno, Michael Clayton and No Country for Old Men. BEST ACTOR The Guarantee: Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood) - One of the most magnificent performances in screen history (no joke). Put your money on him to not just be nominated, but to win as well. The Frontrunners: George Clooney (Michael Clayton) and Johnny Depp (Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street) - Oscar loves both of these men Oscar loves both of these men (Clooney a winner for Syriana in 2005) and it is hard to imagine that changing this year. The Wildcards: James McAvoy (Atonement), Viggo Mortensen (Eastern Promises), Emile Hirsch (Into the Wild) and James Brolin (No Country for Old Men) - If Atonement starts picking up a ton of nominations, expect upstart McAvoy to ride the wave to a nomination. Of the others, Mortensen was brilliant in the criminally under-seen Eastern Promises, Brolin had a fantastic year appearing in four (American Gangster, Grindhouse and In the Valley of Elah being the other three) critical favorites while Hirsh transformed his tragically stubborn character into something ethereal and timeless. On the Outside Looking In: Tommy Lee Jones (In the Valley of Elah) and Ryan Gosling (Lars and the Real Girl) - Both men saw their films drastically underwhelm at the box office, yet both gave performances so multifaceted and incredible everyone I know who took the time to see them are still talking about them. Expect one, or maybe even both, men to find themselves with a much-deserved nomination come Tuesday. The Long Shots: Russell Crowe (3:10 to Yuma), Denzel Washington (American Gangster, The Great Debaters), Phillip Seymour Hoffman (Before the Devil Knows You're Dead, The Savages) and Frank Langella (Starting Out in the Evening) - I don't see any of these guys breaking through. Crowe's picture was surprisingly popular but he's not especially liked. Washington was great in both of his films but didn't do anything in either people haven't seen from him before. Hoffman is going to split his own vote while Langella will have to wait until next year and be happy with a probable nomination for Ron Howard's upcoming Frost/Nixon. My Predictions: Daniel Day-Lewis, George Clooney, Johnny Depp, Ryan Gosling and Viggo Mortensen. BEST ACTRESS The Guarantees: Julie Christie (Away from Her) and Marion Cottilard (La Vie en Rose) - Christie has pretty much made a clean sweep on the awards circuit, her closest competitor French actress Cottilard. Expect their dual to continue come Oscar night. The Frontrunners: Keira Knightley (Atonement), Ellen Page (Juno) and Angelina Jolie (A Mighty Heart) - Page is the talk of Hollywood for her confidently cocky portrait of teenage pregnancy in Juno, many thinking she could be prime for the upset over both Christie and Cottilard. As for Knightley and Jolie, the former gave the best performance of her career in Atonement while the latter ripped people's hearts out as real-life journalist Marianne Pearl in A Mighty Heart. The Wildcards: Cate Blanchett (Elizabeth: The Golden Age), Amy Adams (Enchanted) and Laura Linney (The Savages) - My gut tells me Blanchett is out, mainly because The Golden Age (her performance aside) is widely considered to be one of 2007's most disappointing failures. Working against Adams is the fact Enchanted is a kid's flick, but considering just how brilliant she is in the role there is the great possibility she's going to break through for her second nomination (her first was for 2004's Junebug). Linney is the most intriguing of the threesome. Her work in The Savages is easily some of the highly regarded actress' very best, but so few people have seen the picture it is unfortunately quite possible no one took the time to notice. The Long Shot: Nicole Kidman (Margot at the Wedding) - Claims of box office poison notwithstanding, Kidman turned in one of the finest performances of her career with this dour and highly depressing motion picture. Not many people saw it, but for those who did it goes without saying the actress was borderline unforgettable. My Predictions: Amy Adams, Ellen Page, Julie Christie, Laura Linney and Marion Cottilard. BEST DIRECTOR The Guarantee: Joel and Ethan Coen (No Country for Old Men) - It's the year's most acclaimed motion picture, they've been nominated for awards for it all over the place and won the majority of them handily. This is a no-brainer if there ever was one. The Frontrunners: Julian Schnabel (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly), Sean Penn (Into the Wild), Tony Gilroy (Michael Clayton) and Paul Thomas Anderson (There Will Be Blood) - It's hard to imagine any of these men being omitted from this category. If there is one who could falter, it is probably noted screenwriter and first-timer director Gilroy, but that's a big maybe. You notice I didn't mention Atonement filmmaker Joe Wright and, no, that is not an oversight. For some reason he's not even being considered for a nom which, to my mind, is a tragedy. The Wildcards: Ridley Scott (American Gangster), Sidney Lumet (Before the Devil Knows You're Dead), Jason Reitman (Juno) and Tim Burton (Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street) - This just isn't Scott's year, while Reitman will probably score the ignominy of having his film up for Best Picture while he's shut out of a director nomination. Burton and Lumet are the only two with real chances here, I think, and it would shock my speechless if the Academy doesn't take the opportunity to recognize the latter for over five decades cinematic excellence. On the Outside Looking In: David Fincher (Zodiac) - While his film is a definite long shot for a Best Picture nod, Fincher isn't as far away from getting a nom for directing the film as you might think. A lot of people in Hollywood are talking about him, so don't be too surprised if there's a bit of an upset and he ends up listed as one of the final five nominees. My Predictions: Joel and Ethan Coen, Julian Schnabel, Paul Thomas Anderson, Sean Penn and Sidney Lumet. BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR The Guarantee: Javier Bardem (No Country for Old Men) - Haven't you heard? Next to Daniel Day-Lewis winning Best Actor, Bardem is the biggest sure-thing the 2008 Oscar possess. I mean, seriously, after what he was able to accomplish with that hydraulic air cannon would you want to be the one to tell him he wasn't nominated? Friend-o, I didn't think so. The Frontrunners: Casey Affleck (The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford), Philip Seymour Hoffman (Charlie Wilson's War), Hal Holbrook (Into the Wild) and Tom Wilkinson (Michael Clayton) - This is the only category where I'm close to 100-percent positive all the people being talked about as frontrunners are actually going to get nominations. The Wildcards: Max von Sydow (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly), Tommy Lee Jones (No Country for Old Men) and Paul Dano (There Will Be Blood) - All three are great (especially Jones, he's the heart and soul of No Country for Old Men, after all), but the competition this year looks just too monstrous to overcome. One of them might squeak through (my gut tells me it's Dano), but that's an awfully big might. On the Outside Looking In: John Travolta (Hairspray), Jason Bateman (Juno) and Steve Zahn (Rescue Dawn) - If there were any justice in the world, Zahn would actually unseat one of the frontrunners and score a nod. It isn't going to happen, of course, but a girl can at least dream. As for the other two, I'm not exactly sure why we're talking about them. It isn't going to happen. Fans of either one (or both) of them, please stop daydreaming that it might. My Predictions: Casey Affleck, Javier Bardem, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Hal Holbrook and Tom Wilkinson. BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS The Guarantees: Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone) and Cate Blanchett (I'm Not There) - Ryan has been winning the crux of all the preseason awards, but Blanchett scored the Golden Globe. Not sure who's got the advantage for the actual Oscar, but both women should be on pins and needles waiting to find out. The Frontrunners: Ruby Dee (American Gangster), Vanessa Redgrave (Atonement) and Catherine Keener (Into the Wild) - This list reads like a who's-who of Hollywood favorites, all three actresses beloved by just about everyone eligible to vote for the Academy Awards. Personally, I'm not entirely sure if any of them are actually deserving. Don't get me wrong, all three actresses are great, I just didn't think they made a big enough impression to warrant all this hoopla and recognition. The Wildcards: Saoirse Ronan (Atonement), Julia Roberts (Charlie Wilson's War), Jennifer Garner (Juno), Tilda Swinton (Michael Clayton) - Now this is more like it. Other than Roberts (easily the weakest piece of the Charlie Wilson's War puzzle), all of these women are deserving of an Oscar nomination. Swinton and Ronan, in particular, jump out at me as likely to get into the mix, while Garner could easily find her way in if Juno proves to be as popular as people expect it to be. On the Outside Looking In: Jennifer Jason Leigh (Margot at the Wedding) - The only entirely sympathetic character in the otherwise chilly Margot at the Wedding, Leigh is as magnificent as ever. The Long Shots: Allison Janney (Juno), Tang Wei (Lust, Caution) and Kelly Macdonald (No Country for Old Men) - Both Janney and Macdonald, as good as they are in their respective films, probably need their pictures to sweep to get a chance for nom. As for Wei (who is brilliant), wasn't she her film's lead? Why the heck is Focus pushing her for Supporting Actress? If anyone has answer, please feel free to let me know because I sure as heck can't figure it out. My Predictions: Amy Ryan, Cate Blanchett, Jennifer Garner, Saoirse Ronan and Tilda Swinton. SCREENPLAY There are way too many possibilities here, so many my head is going to practically explode. Safe to say, there are very few names you actually have to remember, and so to just save some time I'm going to ignore all the fabulous and wonderful long shots (yes, that's you, poor Ratatouille, and while you're heading to the exit, please grab Before the Devil Knows You're Dead, Gone Baby Gone, I'm Not There, Knocked Up, The Kite Runner and Away from Her by the hand and take them with you) and just focus on the ten I think will get nominations. BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY My Predictions: Cristian Mungiu (4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days), Diablo Cody (Juno), Nancy Oliver (Lars and the Real Girl), Tony Gilroy (Michael Clayton) and Tamara Jenkins (The Savages). BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY My Predictions: Christopher Hampton (Atonement), Aaron Sorkin (Charlie Wilson's War), Ronald Harwood (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly), Joel Coen and Ethan Coen (No Country for Old Men) and Paul Thomas Anderson (There Will Be Blood). |
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